Here's what Mallach has to say on the subject: The question whether the rebirth of cities will grow to include families is trickier. I believe that suburbs are here to stay but that increasingly they, too, will take a more walkable, somewhat less auto-dependent form. He's also wrong not to acknowledge that, while some residents will indeed prefer suburbs in future decades, that does not mean they will prefer the types of unwalkable, outer suburbs that we built in the last half of the 21st century. (I'll discuss some of the evidence below.) Nonetheless, I think he's wrong to be so sharply dismissive of the evidence that weighs in favor of a lasting rebirth of central cities. I think they will decrease in value, but squatter colonies is going a bit far. Mallach may have a point when he sets up the easy-to-knock straw man of McMansions becoming squatter colonies. Is it possible? Yes, but the evidence is not there." "As I read much of what is being written about demographic change and urban revival, I see a lot of urbanist wishful thinking, along the same lines as the scenarios some pundits paint of exurban McMansions turning into slums and squatter colonies, as their former residents flee the suburbs for the cities like the residents of Pompeii fleeing the eruption of Vesuvius. On Rooflines, the NHI's blog, Mallach cities suburbanist Joel Kotkin with approval and opines: Mallach believes that we may be seeing a short-lived phenomenon of latte-sipping Millennials moving downtown, but no one else, and even the Millennials may be unlikely to remain once they start raising kids.
This new reality means that the communities and businesses that take account of these emerging preferences for smaller homes and lots and more walkable neighborhoods will be the ones that are most successful."Īlan Mallach, a serious scholar at the National Housing Institute (NHI) and someone I respect, isn't buying it, however. A significant market for those things will still exist, but it will be a smaller portion of overall housing demand than it used to be. "The way households are going to be evolving over the next few decades is toward more singles, empty-nesters, and city-lovers, none of whom particularly want the big yards and long commutes they may have grown up with as kids.
In my new book People Habitat: 25 Ways to Think About Greener, Healthier Cities, I put it this way in a chapter titled "But the Past Is Not the Future": In other words, there's a reason why city living is becoming more expensive and suburbs lass so: demand for what cities offer is up, and demand for automobile-dependent suburbs, relatively speaking, is down. The demand for large-lot suburbia, by contrast, is diminishing. Nelson for the propositions that, contrary to what occurred in previous generations, half of all new housing demand between now and 2040 will be for attached homes, the other half for small-lot homes. Just last month I cited University of Utah Professor Arthur C. I and others have been tracking for some time a surging interest in walkable neighborhoods, in both reinvested downtowns and more pedestrian-friendly suburban developments.
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